Open vs Closed Information
In chess, the game is open information: every piece, every move, and every outcome can be calculated if you’re skilled enough. There’s no hidden factor.
In TCGs like Riftbound, the game is closed information: you don’t know your opponent’s exact hand or draws, and probabilities are baked into every decision.
That hidden layer makes risk tolerance one of the most important skills separating good players from great ones — and in this guide, I’ll share my own rules and philosophies around it that you can apply instantly to sharpen your gameplay.
1. The General Rule
Very simple, take your high chances, avoid the low chances.
On the surface, this sounds obvious, but in practice, this is where most players slip.
Why? Because in the moment, emotion overrides math. It’s easy to:
- Chase a flashy low-odds play because it feels like it could win now.
- Avoid a 60% line because you just “lost to it last game.”
- Forget that consistency across hundreds of games is what actually drives winrate.
If you always take the higher-percentage line, even when it doesn’t work out in the short term, the long-term results will carry you upward.
2. Knowing When to Take Low Chances
The general rule says avoid low-odds plays. But true skill shows in the moments you break that rule.
Sometimes the correct move is gambling on a 20–30% line, not because it’s “good,” but because it’s the only path that wins. Examples include:
- Facing a bad matchup where safe lines just drag you into a guaranteed loss.
- Being behind on points and your opponent is threatening 6/7 points.
- A board state where you won’t get another opportunity
This is where risk tolerance truly separates average players from great ones. The ability to recognise when a low-chance line is actually the best chance you’ll ever have is what wins otherwise unwinnable games.
A lot of this skill stems from another skill I will write a guide on; Calculation.
3. Risk Starts Before the Game
Risk tolerance doesn’t just happen on the board — it begins in how you build your deck.
The ratios you choose decide how often you’ll actually see your best cards and how many games you’ll be forced into risky lines.
- Running too few copies of key cards means you’re gambling every game on drawing them when needed.
- Running too many situational cards clogs hands and forces you into bad percentages during play.
Your ratios are your risk profile. Build to see your core cards often enough that you’re playing the game you planned, not the game luck handed you.
(use a damn hypergeometric calculator.)
